Earlier, the Apple Vision Pro was estimated by Ming-Chi Kuo to ship around 500,000 units. However, after its inception, the TF International Securities analyst has revised his previous figure, now believing that the AR headset could ship between 700,000 and 800,000 units. He also provides his prediction concerning the newer model, but consumers should not hold their breath this early, as even with an optimistic outlook, it is not slated to go into mass production before the fourth quarter of 2025.
Shipping time of the Apple Vision Pro has also greatly improved, with the return rate of the AR headset not even touching 1 percent
Despite Kuo raising his shipment estimate, he continues to believe that the Apple Vision Pro will be limited in the U.S. in popularity due to the high price tag and lack of app support. Then again, the analyst notes that the mixed-reality headset is a niche product, so one cannot expect such a device to grow in popularity exponentially, especially where there is a constricted use case for it. Assuming that the novelty does not wear off, the $3,499 will continue to be a barrier for thousands of consumers. Fortunately, Apple has a response to that in the form of a low-cost model, but that is not expected before 2025.
The Apple Vision Pro has the opportunity to garner additional shipments, with Kuo reiterating that the headset will launch outside of the U.S. after WWDC 2024 concludes later this year. As for the return rate, that is comically low, as it is less than 1 percent. However, between 20 and 30 percent of returns were estimated, but Kuo notes that they were carried out by those customers who did not know how to set up the Apple Vision Pro. As for the device’s successor, the technology giant is said to be collecting feedback, but before that, the affordable variant is said to materialize.
Those patiently waiting for the Apple Vision Pro 2, believing that the second iteration will address the problems of the first one, will have to loosen their seatbelts as mass production is not expected to commence until 2027, which is a prediction that Kuo has maintained previously. As for the low-cost version, it could enter mass production in Q4 2025 at the earliest or Q1 2026. Naturally, to appease the masses and bring down the price, Apple will have to make some serious downgrades.
While Kuo did not mention the specifications, a previous report stated instead of a Mac chip, the affordable Apple Vision Pro could be outfitted with an iPhone SoC, along with a display resonating a lower resolution. If you wish to check out the analyst’s entire medium blog, click the source link below to learn more.
News Source: Ming-Chi Kuo
