Mogul Memo to Tim Cook: Where Vision Pro Comes Up Short-Sighted
Dear Tim,
I wanted to wait until I had a chance to sample the Vision Pro myself before I wrote to you about the device and what it means for Apple and, well, you. It’s so easy to get caught up in the hype, particularly when it’s emanating from your company, which whips up mystique around its products like nobody else out there.
Disclaimer regarding my own mixed-reality history: I’ve sampled several headsets over the years and own a Meta Quest 2 that I barely use but my teenage son enjoys regularly.
As for Vision Pro, the screen resolution is terrific, there’s none of the nausea I’ve felt trying some of the other devices, and the hand-eye coordination navigation involved is remarkably intuitive. However, when I took it off after a half hour of usage, my brain felt for a few minutes like was it was too big for my skull.
No doubt you are having your own aches these days, albeit of the heavy-is-the-head-that-wears-the-crown variety, given how consequential Vision Pro is not just for Apple but for your legacy, which is probably permanently enshrouded by your legendary predecessor, Steve Jobs.
Why? Because there’s a lot riding on Vision Pro. It’s been way too long since Apple has brought the kind of transformative device Jobs made seem almost too easy, from iPod to iPhone. Even more recent lesser phenomena AirPods or Apple Watch would be a welcome hit.
And what’s more, Tim, Apple could really use it now, not that a company flirting with a $3 billion market cap could be said to be struggling. But as the first-quarter earnings made clear, the hardware side of the business sets the perception no matter how incredibly the Services side of the business that you have turned into a well-oiled machine performs.
Nevertheless, it’s been nonstop bad news lately on the device side, with soft spots aplenty across iPhone, iPad, wearables and a particularly worrisome sales downturn in China that no amount of caveats from you could keep the stock from dipping after earnings.
If ever there was a time for a new product like Vision Pro to emerge and generate fresh buzz, it’s now.
And yet ...
While reports of 200,000 units sold in the opening weeks sounds like a nice fat number, let’s get real: Those are early adopters willing to pay an obscene $3,500 price. A recent, more worrisome indicator are the reports of dissatisfied customers returning the devices. Anyone who thinks Vision Pro is headed for a growth curve anything like the breakout Apple products of the past is delusional.
It’s a reality backed up by a pair of exclusive CivicScience surveys commissioned by VIP+ to gauge market sentiment toward Vision Pro over time, and the results could not be any more discouraging. Consumer disinterest held steady at nearly three-quarters of respondents from the first, fielded last June, to this February, an ominous indication that Apple’s promotional campaign may not have resonated as impactfully as intended. (We'll be releasing the full breadth of our expansive CivicScience Vision Pro survey in a special report on April 1 — don't miss it.)
In another survey question, while it’s bad enough that 78% registered lack of interest in the product last June, that the number actually grew to 85% the month the product came out is nothing short of atrocious. One silver lining, though, is that “entertainment experiences” were rated highest among the reasons people were interested in sampling Vision Pro but not a great sign that number drooped from June to February.
Worst of all, though it’s not surprising to see that price is the biggest impediment to purchase, it’s actually somewhat surprising to see that a $3,500 product didn’t break 70% as a stated reason for consumer disinterest, while “can use phone, TV, our laptop for the same tasks” and “not aware of its capabilities” cleared 20%.
What I realized within minutes of sampling the product is the problem with Vision Pro is that as impressive as it is as a piece of technology, it’s not remotely clear what the average consumer is supposed to do with it. It’s an assemblage of various kinds of very different applications searching for a killer app, and it’s not immediately clear if any of them are going to imminently succeed.
As far as entertainment, yes, the quality of immersive video is really cool. But wake me up when there’s actual content out there beyond a few samples at launch, and then the marketplace will take it seriously, particularly with regard to sports content.
Perhaps the biggest sin Apple commits with Vision Pro is it doesn’t represent a quantum leap in any one respect from what other headsets on the market, from many other companies, have already achieved. At Apple, you’ve got to put out a product that is head and shoulders above the rest, and in that regard, I don’t know that you’ve reset the bar with Vision Pro.
